What if the healthcare system isn't reformed?

American healthcare

Many believe that if President Obama fails in his mission to reform the healthcare system, then it will stay exactly as it is - but what if they're wrong?

According to health policy analysts and economists, a rise in medical costs is likely to wreak havoc within the system and beyond it - affecting everyone directly or indirectly. "People think if we do nothing, we will have what we have now," said Karen Davis, the president of the Commonwealth Fund, a nonprofit healthcare research group in New York, to The New York Times. "In fact, what we will have is a substantial deterioration in what we have."

Higher premiums

Nearly every mainstream analysis calls for medical costs to continue to climb over the next decade, outpacing the growth in the overall economy and certainly increasing faster than the average paycheck.

What this means, is higher premiums, meaning fewer individuals and businesses will be able to afford insurance coverage. More of everyone's money will go towards healthcare, and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid could struggle to find the money to operate.

"It will break all of our banks if we do nothing," said Peter Lee, who oversees national health policy for the Pacific Business Group on Health, which represents employers that offer coverage to workers. "It is a course that is literally bankrupting the federal government and businesses and individuals across the country."

Families that enjoy generous insurance now are likely to see the cost of those benefits escalate. The typical price of family coverage now runs about $13,000 a year, but premiums are expected to nearly double, to $24,000, by 2020, according to the Commonwealth Fund. That equals nearly a quarter of the median family income today.

While some employers will continue to contribute the lion's share of those premiums, there will be less money for employees in the form of raises or bonuses.

The higher premiums will also persuade more businesses, especially smaller ones, to decide not to offer insurance. More people who buy coverage on their own or are asked to pay a large share of premiums will find the price too high. Itdoesn 't take too many 39-percent increases, like the recent one proposed in California that has garnered so much attention, to put insurance out of reach.

Cost of failure

While estimates vary, the number of people without insurance is expected to increase by more than a million a year, said Ron Pollack, the executive director of Families USA, a Washington consumer advocacy group that favors the Democrats' approach. The Urban Institute, in their report The cost of failure to enact health reform: implications for States, predicts that the number of uninsured individuals will increase from about 49 million today to between 57 million and 66 million by 2019. The Democrats' plan is expected to cover as many as 30 million individuals who now are uninsured.

Not only that, but it is estimated that as many as 275,000 people will die prematurely over the next 10 years because they do not have insurance.

If nothing passes now, Stuart Butler, a health policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation says he thinks Congress will tackle narrower areas, like insurance regulation, to make it easier for people with pre-existing medical conditions to find coverage, or they might try another expansion of Medicaid or the children's program.

Jodie Humphries

Jodie Humphries graduated from Bath Spa University with a BA Hons in Creative Writing in 2008. She has worked for GDS Publishing for the digital group since July 2009. She has previous experience with writing for the web, running her own website since April 2007.

Related News:

New health reform plan |Could US healthcare reform affect other countries? |Breast cancer and the healthcare reform |Full debate for healthcare reform after Senate vote

Like this article? Get the RSS feed: